California’s top energy agencies sounded the alarm bells: California may likely experience summer blackouts again. The summer outlook is grim. Experts are predicting an energy shortfall equivalent to what it takes to power about 1.3 million homes when use is at its peak during the hot and dry summer months of 2022. There are more than 14 million homes total in California.
How would this happen? The burden from drought, extreme heat and wildfires, plus the supply chain and regulatory issues that are hampering the solar and battery storage projects that were supposed to be on-line this summer.
Short 1,700 Megawatts
According to the three top state agencies on the matter (The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), the California Energy Commission (CEC) and the California Independent System Operator (CAISO)), the models are predicting that the state will have 1,700 fewer megawatts of power than it needs during the times of highest demand. The demand peaks typically in early evening as the sun sets during hottest months when air conditioners are in full use.
It Could Get Worse
The reality is it could be far worse. Under the most extreme circumstances, say, if the entire West experiences a heatwave at the same time, the California power shortfall may be as much as 5,000 megawatts. That is equivalent to the energy needed to power 3.75 million homes.
CPUC President Alice Reynolds: “We know reliability is going to be difficult. We know climate change is putting Californians at risk of further outages.”
To add insult to injury, if the entire West has a heat wave at the same time, it would more likely experience blackouts this year and hinder California’s ability to buy excess power from other states, according to CAISO Senior Vice President Mark Rothleder.
Why is the ability to buy excess power from other states important? California has never produced enough power in state to keep its lights on. California depends on the rest of the West for 20% to 30% of its daily power needs.
Has California Done Enough?
The top energy agencies said that California has made considerable progress in shoring up additional resources for the grid, adding nearly 4,000 megawatts of battery storage in just over two years. However, it might not be enough. Climate change is creating ever-worsening heat waves and supplies are tightening all over the West, making it harder for the state to import electricity in a pinch. Not to mention the havoc that wildfires cause by knocking transmission lines out of service.
Furthermore, as the West-wide drought enters its third year, this reality will lead to thousand megawatts of hydropower not being available. Last summer, the California Department of Water Resources had to shut down the Lake Oroville (the second largest reservoir in California) hydro plant because reservoir levels got too low. It was the first closure of the plant since the reservoir opened in 1968. At a point in the year when California’s water storage should be at its highest, the state’s two largest reservoirs have already dropped to critically low levels — a sobering outlook for the hotter and drier months ahead.
