The number of wildfires and amount of land burned in parched California so far this year is greatly exceeding the totals for the same period in the disastrous wildfire year of 2020.
In 2020, between January 1 and July 4, there were 4,599 fires that burned 114.8 square miles, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CalFIRE). In 2021 (to date), California has already seen more than 6,049 fires that have burned nearly 1 million acres or more than 1,500 square miles. By the end of 2020, a total of 9,917 wildfires had charred a record 6,653 square miles and damaged or destroyed 10,488 structures.
This year’s increased wildfire activity, which has damaged or destroyed nearly 900 structures, has been driven by hot and dry conditions, according to CalFIRE. The entire State is in the grip of drought, much of it classified as extreme or exceptional. After a dry winter and early heat waves, the landscape is covered in extremely dry vegetation. All of this is compounded by a developing La Niña, which is an atmospheric condition that could mean a dry winter with no rain.
How dangerous has this year become? In the first full month of the 2021 fire season, the Dixie Fire, the first monster fire of the season, is now the second largest wildfire in California’s history, and in the last few days destroyed the entire historic community of Greenville. Burning in Plumas and Butte Counties, in the Northern Sierra, the Dixie Fire merged with the Fly Fire. Combined, the fire is now over 600,000 acres (937 square miles) and is only 31% contained according to CalFIRE (as of 8/14).
What Will the 2021 Wildfire Season Mean for Carbon Emissions?
In order to anticipate what this could mean for carbon emissions in 2021, we need to look at 2020. In December 2020, CARB released a draft report titled “Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Contemporary Wildfire, Prescribed Fire, and Forest Management Activities.”
This draft report states:
“At the time of this analysis, the 2020 fire season had not yet concluded. Cal FIRE estimates that 4.2 million acres have been burned to date in 2020. Using the preliminary wildfire perimeter data available from the National Interagency Fire Center, CARB staff’s preliminary draft estimate of 2020 wildfire emissions is 112 million metric tons of CO2 (MMt CO2). CARB staff will analyze and update 2020 wildfire emission estimates when final 2020 fire perimeters become available in mid-2021.”
Prior to 2020, California’s worst fire season in State history (based on acreage burned) occurred in 2019, when fires scorched more than 1.59 million acres and released 45.5 MMt CO2.
The early estimates on the 2020 fire season paints a grim picture – 2020 fires released 112 MMt CO2 emissions, compared to 2019’s 45.5 MMt CO2.
According to CARB’s draft report (released July 28, 2021), titled: “California Greenhouse Gas Emissions for 2000 to 2019 – Trends of Emissions and Other Indicators,” the annual statewide greenhouse gas (GHG) emission inventory exceeded 400 MMTCO2e. “In 2019, emissions from GHG emitting activities statewide were 418.2 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MMTCO2e), 7.2 MMTCO2e lower than 2018 levels and almost 13 MMTCO2e below the 2020 GHG Limit of 431 MMTCO2e.”
Notwithstanding the improvements, comparing the preliminary totals to CARBs best available numbers, in 2020, 25 percent of Statewide CO2 emissions would have come from wildfires.
Offsetting the Emissions from the Fires
Imagine if California sought to offset those emissions—just for the fires—how would we do it? What would you need to shut off and for how long? Using CARB’s data from 2019 (which is the latest data publicly available), in 2019, California’s total emissions from all sectors were 418.2 MMt CO2e (CO2e—Carbon and Carbon Equivalents) – this is how much carbon it took to move the 5th largest economy in the world.
By Sector, the emissions breakdown as follow:
- Commercial and Residential: 10.5% (~43.8 MMt CO2e)
- Agriculture: 7.6% (~31.8 MMt CO2e)
- Electric Power: 14.1% (~58.8 MMt CO2e)
- Industrial: 21.1% (~88.2 MMt CO2e)
- Transportation: 37.7% (~166.1 MMt CO2e)
Applying 2019’s annual total of 418.2 MMt CO2e is equivalent to ~34.85 MMt CO2e per month. In order to offset the total emissions from just the fires from 2020, assuming roughly equivalent emissions, California would have to offset – or “shutdown” – by producing no emissions at all from any sector for ~96 days.
Now imagine where California might wind up with wildfire emissions by the end of the 2021 fire season. California is likely to surpass 2020 emissions totals from wildfires. If this happens, what will it take to offset those emissions and for how long?
How many Californians will be willing to stop all activities in order to offset these emissions? Our guess: Not many. While we are constantly reminded of the emissions impacts of the drivers of the economy, we forget about events such as these wildfires, and what a costly impact they are having on our health and economy and the efforts we make to reduce greenhouse gasses.
